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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Informed Dialogue

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Each writes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.

Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."

Request for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."